Practical checklist
Before you invest in the US.
For established businesses that are considering US expansion, there are five principles that should be followed to validate the commercial case before committing significant time, capital and resources.
Reading time
10 min
Why this matters
US expansion is a commitment, not just an opportunity.
For established businesses with proven traction at home, the United States is often the most attractive next market. It is also the market where more expansion plans quietly stall than anywhere else.
The difference between a successful entry and an expensive misstep usually comes down to what leadership teams validate before they execute. This checklist draws on the five principles that shape the Page Advisory assessment: evidence before momentum, commercial intent before interest, adaptation before assumption, protected leadership capacity and deliberate capital commitment.
In this checklist
Six areas to pressure-test before you enter.
01
Validate before you execute
US expansion should begin with evidence, not momentum. Before significant resources are committed, leadership teams need to understand whether the opportunity is commercially viable.
- Have we identified genuine customer demand in the US, not just flattering feedback?
- Do we know which customer segments and regions offer the strongest opportunity?
- Have we mapped the competitive alternatives US customers already choose?
- Can the commercial model support sustainable growth at realistic price and cost assumptions?
- Is there a credible route to market that can convert interest into revenue?
The most expensive mistake is to start spending on legal structure, banking and operations before these questions have been answered. Validation is not a phase; it is the discipline that should run through every step of the entry decision.
02
Interest is not evidence
Positive conversations, introductions and encouraging feedback all create confidence, but they do not necessarily demonstrate commercial viability.
It is easy to mistake enthusiasm for proof. A buyer saying your product is interesting is not the same as a buyer placing an order. A distributor offering an introduction is not the same as a signed agreement. A customer saying they would buy is not the same as a transaction.
- Have we spoken to the right customers — the ones who actually make purchasing decisions?
- Is there credible purchase intent, or only general encouragement?
- Do the unit economics work at US price, margin and cost structures?
- Can the proposed route to market convert interest into sustainable revenue?
- Have we tested the assumptions behind projected demand, not just described them?
03
Home market success does not prove US market fit
A proposition that performs strongly in another market may still require substantial adaptation for the US.
Customer expectations, product mix, pricing, positioning, channels, operating requirements and buying behaviour can all differ. The question is not whether the brand can succeed in the US in some form, but whether the adapted opportunity is still commercially attractive.
- What parts of our proposition can transfer directly to the US?
- What needs to change in product, packaging, messaging or assortment?
- How does our pricing and margin structure need to adapt for US retail and ecommerce?
- Which channels matter in the US, and are they the same as at home?
- Will the changes required still leave us with an attractive commercial opportunity?
04
Protect leadership capacity
US expansion demands significant senior management attention at the same time leadership must continue running the existing business.
Experienced transatlantic investors often advise founders to expect spending 30% to 50% of their time in the US during the first 18 months. Market research, customer development, partner evaluation and strategic decision making can absorb substantial CEO and executive capacity.
- Does the leadership team have the capacity to run a second market, not just the appetite?
- Have we structured the assessment so time is focused on decisions that matter most?
- Are we avoiding unnecessary operational setup before the opportunity has been validated?
- Is there a clear owner for the US entry decision inside the leadership team?
- Can the home market continue to perform while senior attention is divided?
05
Commit capital deliberately
The costs of US entry begin well before meaningful revenue is established. Those investments should follow a clear understanding of the market opportunity, not become the mechanism through which the business discovers whether the opportunity exists.
Published benchmarks put early setup and operating costs into the tens of thousands of dollars before salaries and many market development costs are included. Once execution begins, spending on legal structure, banking, tax, hiring, operations, travel and other setup costs can accumulate quickly.
- Do we have a clear view of the total cost to enter and operate in the US for 12–18 months?
- Have we modelled a downside case the business can actually absorb?
- Are we investing after validating the commercial case, or to discover it?
- Is each early cost tied to a specific decision or milestone?
- Have we protected enough capital to adapt the plan if the first assumptions are wrong?
06
When are you ready to move from assessment to execution?
The purpose of a US market entry assessment is not to justify a decision already made. It is to make the decision honestly — and, if the answer is yes, to enter with the plan and resourcing to succeed.
A considered decision has three characteristics. It is grounded in evidence about the US market, not extrapolation from the home market. It is stress tested against a downside case the business can absorb. And it is owned by the leadership team, not delegated to an outside adviser or a single internal champion.
- Can we answer the five principles above with evidence, not assumptions?
- Do we have a clear recommendation on whether, where and how to proceed?
- Have we identified what needs to be true before capital is committed at scale?
- Is the leadership team aligned on the decision and the risks?
- Do we know what the first 90 days of execution would look like?
Take it further
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The US Market Entry Assessment applies this checklist in depth to your business, market and commercial model — and gives you a clear recommendation on whether, where and how to proceed.